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USMCA Review Raises Risks for North American Pork Industry, Economist Warns
North America's pork supply chain—stretching from Canadian farms to Mexican markets—hangs in the balance as the 2026 United States‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement (USMCA) review approaches. At the World Pork Expo in Des Moines on June 4, 2026, Glynn Tonsor, a professor of agricultural economics at the University of Iowa, warned that the three‑country industry, which operates as a single supply chain, could face disruption if the agreement is not renewed.
Tonsor explained that early‑weaned pigs routinely move from Canadian farms into U.S. facilities and that U.S. ham production relies heavily on exports to Mexico. “We disproportionately export more ham products than we do other parts of the animal,” he said. The integration gives producers a competitive edge, but it also creates vulnerability. “The upcoming 2026 review of the United States‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement could disrupt that integration,” he cautioned.
The review, scheduled for July 1, 2026, is a mandatory joint assessment that all three countries must complete every six years. If the agreement is not renewed, it will expire after 16 years, ending the current free‑trade framework that replaced NAFTA in 2020.
The U.S. pork industry has benefited from the USMCA’s removal of tariffs on most animal products. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. pork exports to Mexico increased sharply after the agreement took effect, especially for ham. The U.S. ham market has been a key driver of domestic pork prices, as Mexican demand has pushed U.S. producers to maintain higher output. Tonsor added that the U.S. market competes with Mexico for the same ham, which could affect domestic pricing if trade flows are altered.
The trade war that began in February 2025 further illustrates the fragility of the supply chain. President Trump imposed a 25 % tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports, but paused the measure for 30 days while the partners agreed to strengthen border security. The tariffs were reinstated on March 4, 2025, and the U.S. government later exempted USMCA‑compliant products until April 2, 2025. The episode highlighted how quickly trade rules can change and how quickly producers must adapt.
Industry groups have called for a renewal of the agreement. At the World Pork Expo, a panel of pork, corn, and soybean farmers urged the Trump administration to renew the USMCA before the July 1 deadline. The Iowa Farm Bureau said the agreement has boosted demand for agricultural products and supported farm incomes. The Canadian government formally requested renewal on June 1, 2026, in a letter to U.S. and Mexican counterparts, noting that the USMCA is highly beneficial to all three countries.
If the agreement is not renewed, producers could face new tariffs, stricter sanitary requirements, or changes in market access. The U.S. pork industry would need to re‑evaluate supply routes, especially the flow of early‑weaned pigs from Canada and the export of ham to Mexico. The risk is not limited to trade costs; disruptions could also affect animal health protocols and logistics, potentially increasing transportation times and costs.
The USMCA review process is still underway. The three governments have not yet agreed on a timeline for negotiations or a decision. The U.S. Department of Commerce has indicated that it will seek to maintain market access for U.S. pork producers, but no formal commitments have been made. The outcome will shape the future of North American pork trade for the next decade.
In the meantime, producers are monitoring developments closely. Industry analysts expect that any changes to tariff schedules or market access will be reflected in domestic pork prices and export volumes. The USMCA review remains a critical juncture for the integrated North American pork industry, with potential consequences for producers, consumers, and the broader agricultural economy.
Tonsor explained that early‑weaned pigs routinely move from Canadian farms into U.S. facilities and that U.S. ham production relies heavily on exports to Mexico. “We disproportionately export more ham products than we do other parts of the animal,” he said. The integration gives producers a competitive edge, but it also creates vulnerability. “The upcoming 2026 review of the United States‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement could disrupt that integration,” he cautioned.
The review, scheduled for July 1, 2026, is a mandatory joint assessment that all three countries must complete every six years. If the agreement is not renewed, it will expire after 16 years, ending the current free‑trade framework that replaced NAFTA in 2020.
The U.S. pork industry has benefited from the USMCA’s removal of tariffs on most animal products. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. pork exports to Mexico increased sharply after the agreement took effect, especially for ham. The U.S. ham market has been a key driver of domestic pork prices, as Mexican demand has pushed U.S. producers to maintain higher output. Tonsor added that the U.S. market competes with Mexico for the same ham, which could affect domestic pricing if trade flows are altered.
The trade war that began in February 2025 further illustrates the fragility of the supply chain. President Trump imposed a 25 % tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports, but paused the measure for 30 days while the partners agreed to strengthen border security. The tariffs were reinstated on March 4, 2025, and the U.S. government later exempted USMCA‑compliant products until April 2, 2025. The episode highlighted how quickly trade rules can change and how quickly producers must adapt.
Industry groups have called for a renewal of the agreement. At the World Pork Expo, a panel of pork, corn, and soybean farmers urged the Trump administration to renew the USMCA before the July 1 deadline. The Iowa Farm Bureau said the agreement has boosted demand for agricultural products and supported farm incomes. The Canadian government formally requested renewal on June 1, 2026, in a letter to U.S. and Mexican counterparts, noting that the USMCA is highly beneficial to all three countries.
If the agreement is not renewed, producers could face new tariffs, stricter sanitary requirements, or changes in market access. The U.S. pork industry would need to re‑evaluate supply routes, especially the flow of early‑weaned pigs from Canada and the export of ham to Mexico. The risk is not limited to trade costs; disruptions could also affect animal health protocols and logistics, potentially increasing transportation times and costs.
The USMCA review process is still underway. The three governments have not yet agreed on a timeline for negotiations or a decision. The U.S. Department of Commerce has indicated that it will seek to maintain market access for U.S. pork producers, but no formal commitments have been made. The outcome will shape the future of North American pork trade for the next decade.
In the meantime, producers are monitoring developments closely. Industry analysts expect that any changes to tariff schedules or market access will be reflected in domestic pork prices and export volumes. The USMCA review remains a critical juncture for the integrated North American pork industry, with potential consequences for producers, consumers, and the broader agricultural economy.
