Blab News
California Governor Race: Steve Hilton Advances to November Runoff Against Xavier Becerra
California's top‑two primary on June 2, 2026 sent shockwaves through the state's political landscape. In a rare twist, former Fox News host Steve Hilton secured the second‑place spot with 25.1 percent of the vote, narrowly edging out billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer, who garnered 22.4 percent. The outcome left Hilton and former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra as the only candidates on the ballot for the November 3 general election.
The tally was announced after 83 percent of ballots had been counted. The Associated Press reported that the race for the second place was still under close scrutiny by election officials, but the Decision Desk predicted Hilton’s advancement. The prediction was met with jubilation from Hilton’s supporters and a public congratulation from former President Donald Trump on Truth Social, where Trump praised Hilton’s “vision and strength” to “turn it around before it is too late” for California.
Hilton’s campaign message centers on restoring California from what he describes as a period of progressive decline. He has highlighted rising crime, homelessness, and the cost‑of‑living crisis as key issues. At a rally held just hours before the polls closed, Hilton urged voters that the state needed a “catalyst for change” and that his advancement to the final round was that catalyst.
The political landscape in California has shifted dramatically since the last Republican governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, won re‑election in 2006. In 2006, registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans by roughly 1.3 million to 1.2 million. Today, the gap is about 5 million Democrats to 5 million Republicans, giving Democrats a two‑to‑one advantage. Even if Hilton mobilizes every Republican voter, the registration deficit would leave him short of the votes needed to win.
Polling data before the primary reflected a fragmented electorate. An Emerson College poll placed Becerra at 28 percent, Steyer at 22 percent, and Hilton at 21 percent. A SurveyUSA poll taken in the final days of the primary had Hilton tied with Steyer at 20 percent, with Becerra at 17 percent. Analysts expect the Democratic vote to consolidate behind Becerra once the field narrows, widening the gap between him and Hilton.
Betting markets mirror the polling uncertainty. On Kalshi and Polymarket, Hilton’s odds of winning the governorship are about 7 percent, while Becerra’s are roughly 70 percent. These odds reflect the difficulty of a Republican candidate overcoming California’s demographic and registration advantages.
Campaign finance figures show an unprecedented level of spending in the primary season. Tom Steyer’s self‑funded campaign raised more than $160 million, setting a high bar for media saturation across the state. Hilton has raised about $7 million, with nearly half of those donations coming after April 19, indicating growing donor enthusiasm. Becerra’s war chest totals just over $6 million, with more than $5 million raised after the same April 19 threshold.
The November election will pit a seasoned public servant against a media‑savvy outsider. Becerra’s résumé includes service as California Attorney General and U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary, and he is positioned to become the state’s first Latino governor in more than a century. His platform focuses on stabilizing housing costs, lowering energy prices, and maintaining progressive policies. Critics have already questioned his performance as HHS Secretary during the COVID‑19 pandemic.
Hilton, by contrast, frames himself as an outsider who will challenge the status quo. He promises lower taxes, stricter law‑and‑order policies, and a formal investigation into the current administration for potential fraud. His campaign relies on his media background and a narrative of restoring California’s prosperity. The outcome of the November runoff will determine whether California continues its long‑standing progressive trajectory or shifts toward a more conservative approach. As the campaign season moves into the high‑turnout period, both candidates are preparing to expand outreach to independent voters and to address the economic concerns that dominate California’s electorate. The state’s political future will be decided on November 3, when voters in Sacramento and across California cast ballots for the next governor.
The tally was announced after 83 percent of ballots had been counted. The Associated Press reported that the race for the second place was still under close scrutiny by election officials, but the Decision Desk predicted Hilton’s advancement. The prediction was met with jubilation from Hilton’s supporters and a public congratulation from former President Donald Trump on Truth Social, where Trump praised Hilton’s “vision and strength” to “turn it around before it is too late” for California.
Hilton’s campaign message centers on restoring California from what he describes as a period of progressive decline. He has highlighted rising crime, homelessness, and the cost‑of‑living crisis as key issues. At a rally held just hours before the polls closed, Hilton urged voters that the state needed a “catalyst for change” and that his advancement to the final round was that catalyst.
The political landscape in California has shifted dramatically since the last Republican governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, won re‑election in 2006. In 2006, registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans by roughly 1.3 million to 1.2 million. Today, the gap is about 5 million Democrats to 5 million Republicans, giving Democrats a two‑to‑one advantage. Even if Hilton mobilizes every Republican voter, the registration deficit would leave him short of the votes needed to win.
Polling data before the primary reflected a fragmented electorate. An Emerson College poll placed Becerra at 28 percent, Steyer at 22 percent, and Hilton at 21 percent. A SurveyUSA poll taken in the final days of the primary had Hilton tied with Steyer at 20 percent, with Becerra at 17 percent. Analysts expect the Democratic vote to consolidate behind Becerra once the field narrows, widening the gap between him and Hilton.
Betting markets mirror the polling uncertainty. On Kalshi and Polymarket, Hilton’s odds of winning the governorship are about 7 percent, while Becerra’s are roughly 70 percent. These odds reflect the difficulty of a Republican candidate overcoming California’s demographic and registration advantages.
Campaign finance figures show an unprecedented level of spending in the primary season. Tom Steyer’s self‑funded campaign raised more than $160 million, setting a high bar for media saturation across the state. Hilton has raised about $7 million, with nearly half of those donations coming after April 19, indicating growing donor enthusiasm. Becerra’s war chest totals just over $6 million, with more than $5 million raised after the same April 19 threshold.
The November election will pit a seasoned public servant against a media‑savvy outsider. Becerra’s résumé includes service as California Attorney General and U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary, and he is positioned to become the state’s first Latino governor in more than a century. His platform focuses on stabilizing housing costs, lowering energy prices, and maintaining progressive policies. Critics have already questioned his performance as HHS Secretary during the COVID‑19 pandemic.
Hilton, by contrast, frames himself as an outsider who will challenge the status quo. He promises lower taxes, stricter law‑and‑order policies, and a formal investigation into the current administration for potential fraud. His campaign relies on his media background and a narrative of restoring California’s prosperity. The outcome of the November runoff will determine whether California continues its long‑standing progressive trajectory or shifts toward a more conservative approach. As the campaign season moves into the high‑turnout period, both candidates are preparing to expand outreach to independent voters and to address the economic concerns that dominate California’s electorate. The state’s political future will be decided on November 3, when voters in Sacramento and across California cast ballots for the next governor.
