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One Nation Surpasses Labor in Recent Polls, Raising Questions About Australian Political Landscape
Three independent opinion polls released in the first week of June 2026 revealed an unexpected shift: the far‑right One Nation party has edged ahead of the governing Labor Party in primary‑vote support. The Australian, the Australian Financial Review, and a third unnamed poll all reported One Nation at 30–31 % of the primary vote, versus Labor’s 29–30 % and the Liberal‑National Coalition’s 18 %. While the margin between One Nation and Labor is only one to two percentage points, this marks the first time a national measure has placed One Nation ahead of Labor.
Each poll surveyed fewer than 1,000 respondents, and the lead fluctuated slightly depending on methodology. Still, the results echo a broader trend that emerged after the May 2025 federal election, when One Nation captured 6.4 % of the lower‑house vote nationwide and increased its Senate representation from one to four seats.
The 2025 election was a landslide for Labor. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s party secured 94 of the 150 lower‑house seats – the highest number ever won by a single party – and received 55.22 % of the two‑party‑preferred vote. The Liberal‑National Coalition, the main opposition, suffered its worst federal result in terms of vote share and its second‑worst seat count since the party’s formation in 1944. The Coalition’s urban component, the Liberal Party, was reduced to 28 seats, a loss of 16 seats from the previous election.
One Nation’s rise has been gradual. Founded by Pauline Hanson in 1997, the party has historically focused on anti‑immigration and anti‑multiculturalism rhetoric. After a period of decline, the party regained momentum in the 2025 election, winning seats in New South Wales and Western Australia for the first time outside Queensland. Barnaby Joyce, a former National Party leader, joined One Nation in December 2025, bringing two seats to the party’s federal caucus.
The new polling data suggest that the shift in voter sentiment may be linked to broader economic concerns. In the 2025 budget, Labor increased defence spending to record levels while announcing $63.8 billion in cuts to social services, including disability support. The cost‑of‑living crisis, driven in part by inflation linked to the Iran conflict, has intensified public dissatisfaction. A Newspoll conducted by The Australian found that nearly 70 % of respondents believed Australian politics was overdue for a major shake‑up.
The implications for the upcoming November 2026 federal election are significant. If the trend continues, One Nation could become the largest opposition party, potentially altering the dynamics of preference flows and coalition negotiations. The Coalition’s internal divisions – highlighted by the brief split between the Liberal and National parties in 2025 – may further weaken its bargaining power. Meanwhile, Labor’s record majority could face challenges from a more fragmented parliament.
In the short term, the Australian Electoral Commission has not announced any changes to the electoral timetable. The next federal election is scheduled for 15 November 2026. Political analysts note that the current polling environment will likely influence campaign strategies, particularly regarding defence policy, immigration, and social spending. The Australian government has not yet issued a formal response to the polling results.
As the election approaches, observers will watch whether One Nation’s support translates into a significant seat gain. The party’s policy platform – which includes a commitment to fossil‑fuel industry support, a reduction in climate‑change measures, and a proposed increase in defence spending to 5 % of GDP – remains largely untested in a parliamentary context. The outcome of the 2026 election will determine whether the current polling shift represents a lasting realignment of Australian politics or a temporary fluctuation.
The situation remains fluid. While the polls indicate a narrowing gap between One Nation and Labor, the margin is small and subject to change as new data emerges. The Australian public’s response to the cost‑of‑living crisis, defence spending, and social policy will be key determinants of the final electoral outcome.
Each poll surveyed fewer than 1,000 respondents, and the lead fluctuated slightly depending on methodology. Still, the results echo a broader trend that emerged after the May 2025 federal election, when One Nation captured 6.4 % of the lower‑house vote nationwide and increased its Senate representation from one to four seats.
The 2025 election was a landslide for Labor. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s party secured 94 of the 150 lower‑house seats – the highest number ever won by a single party – and received 55.22 % of the two‑party‑preferred vote. The Liberal‑National Coalition, the main opposition, suffered its worst federal result in terms of vote share and its second‑worst seat count since the party’s formation in 1944. The Coalition’s urban component, the Liberal Party, was reduced to 28 seats, a loss of 16 seats from the previous election.
One Nation’s rise has been gradual. Founded by Pauline Hanson in 1997, the party has historically focused on anti‑immigration and anti‑multiculturalism rhetoric. After a period of decline, the party regained momentum in the 2025 election, winning seats in New South Wales and Western Australia for the first time outside Queensland. Barnaby Joyce, a former National Party leader, joined One Nation in December 2025, bringing two seats to the party’s federal caucus.
The new polling data suggest that the shift in voter sentiment may be linked to broader economic concerns. In the 2025 budget, Labor increased defence spending to record levels while announcing $63.8 billion in cuts to social services, including disability support. The cost‑of‑living crisis, driven in part by inflation linked to the Iran conflict, has intensified public dissatisfaction. A Newspoll conducted by The Australian found that nearly 70 % of respondents believed Australian politics was overdue for a major shake‑up.
The implications for the upcoming November 2026 federal election are significant. If the trend continues, One Nation could become the largest opposition party, potentially altering the dynamics of preference flows and coalition negotiations. The Coalition’s internal divisions – highlighted by the brief split between the Liberal and National parties in 2025 – may further weaken its bargaining power. Meanwhile, Labor’s record majority could face challenges from a more fragmented parliament.
In the short term, the Australian Electoral Commission has not announced any changes to the electoral timetable. The next federal election is scheduled for 15 November 2026. Political analysts note that the current polling environment will likely influence campaign strategies, particularly regarding defence policy, immigration, and social spending. The Australian government has not yet issued a formal response to the polling results.
As the election approaches, observers will watch whether One Nation’s support translates into a significant seat gain. The party’s policy platform – which includes a commitment to fossil‑fuel industry support, a reduction in climate‑change measures, and a proposed increase in defence spending to 5 % of GDP – remains largely untested in a parliamentary context. The outcome of the 2026 election will determine whether the current polling shift represents a lasting realignment of Australian politics or a temporary fluctuation.
The situation remains fluid. While the polls indicate a narrowing gap between One Nation and Labor, the margin is small and subject to change as new data emerges. The Australian public’s response to the cost‑of‑living crisis, defence spending, and social policy will be key determinants of the final electoral outcome.
