Blab News
Gulf Airlines Rebound to Near Pre-War Levels as Airspace Reopens
From the shadows of a four‑month conflict, Gulf skies are breathing again. According to Flightradar24 data, carriers in the region have lifted their flight volumes to roughly 82 % of the level they enjoyed before the Iran conflict began on 27 February 2026. Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad are now operating at or near 90 % of their pre‑war capacity, while Kuwait Airways and Gulf Air sit at 86 % and 93 % respectively. Smaller carriers Air Arabia and Flydubai remain below 80 % of their February volumes.
The uptick follows an interim agreement signed by the United States and Iran on Wednesday that ended the near four‑month hostilities. Officials expect the ceasefire to be fully implemented in a meeting on Friday, a move that would allow the region’s airspace to reopen in full. “Once normalcy returns, Gulf airlines will act as normal, coming back in full force,” said Aviation Strategy managing partner James Halstead.
Safety concerns have kept many carriers cautious. Drone and missile attacks during the conflict forced Gulf‑bound flights to divert and limited routes to a handful of safe corridors. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) still warns against flying to the region, a notice that remains in place until 24 June. EASA said it would review the warning after the latest developments but deemed it too early to determine whether the de‑escalation will reduce risks to civil aviation.
Australia’s recent relaxation of travel advice for several Middle Eastern countries could boost the region’s status as a transit hub. Emirates CEO Tim Clark told Reuters last week that the carrier would focus on reassuring travellers about safety and reliability as it restores its network.
The economic impact of the conflict extends beyond the Gulf. Jet fuel prices, which spiked during the war, are now falling, but airlines without oil‑hedging contracts still feel the squeeze. Schedules across Europe and Asia were disrupted, and carriers warehoused aircraft or ran “flights to nowhere” to reposition planes.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA), representing more than 370 airlines that account for about 85 % of global air traffic, cut its 2026 profit forecast almost in half. The association now expects a combined net profit of $23 billion, down from a previous projection of about $41 billion and from $45 billion in 2025.
Etihad is offering complimentary medical travel insurance to visitors in Abu Dhabi from July through December, while Gulf Air’s and Etihad’s flight volumes are at 93 % of their February levels. Kuwait Airways and Qatar Airways have reached 86 % and 87 % respectively, and Emirates is at 86 % of its pre‑conflict flight volume.
The Gulf’s investment in airports, hotels and events over recent years has positioned the region as a global transport hub and tourism destination. A full reopening of the skies is expected to boost Gulf economies and restore the airlines’ role in connecting the Middle East with Europe, Asia, Africa and the Americas.
The current situation remains fluid. While flight volumes are climbing, the region’s airspace is still under review by aviation authorities, and the EASA warning will remain until 24 June. Airlines are monitoring the situation closely and will adjust schedules as new guidance emerges.
In the coming weeks, Gulf carriers will likely continue to add routes and increase frequencies as airspace restrictions ease. The industry will watch the IATA’s revised forecasts and the outcome of the ceasefire implementation meeting on Friday. The pace of recovery will depend on the stability of the region’s security situation and the speed at which regulatory bodies lift travel warnings.
For now, Gulf airlines are steadily regaining their pre‑war operational levels, signalling a gradual return to normalcy for the region’s aviation sector.
The uptick follows an interim agreement signed by the United States and Iran on Wednesday that ended the near four‑month hostilities. Officials expect the ceasefire to be fully implemented in a meeting on Friday, a move that would allow the region’s airspace to reopen in full. “Once normalcy returns, Gulf airlines will act as normal, coming back in full force,” said Aviation Strategy managing partner James Halstead.
Safety concerns have kept many carriers cautious. Drone and missile attacks during the conflict forced Gulf‑bound flights to divert and limited routes to a handful of safe corridors. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) still warns against flying to the region, a notice that remains in place until 24 June. EASA said it would review the warning after the latest developments but deemed it too early to determine whether the de‑escalation will reduce risks to civil aviation.
Australia’s recent relaxation of travel advice for several Middle Eastern countries could boost the region’s status as a transit hub. Emirates CEO Tim Clark told Reuters last week that the carrier would focus on reassuring travellers about safety and reliability as it restores its network.
The economic impact of the conflict extends beyond the Gulf. Jet fuel prices, which spiked during the war, are now falling, but airlines without oil‑hedging contracts still feel the squeeze. Schedules across Europe and Asia were disrupted, and carriers warehoused aircraft or ran “flights to nowhere” to reposition planes.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA), representing more than 370 airlines that account for about 85 % of global air traffic, cut its 2026 profit forecast almost in half. The association now expects a combined net profit of $23 billion, down from a previous projection of about $41 billion and from $45 billion in 2025.
Etihad is offering complimentary medical travel insurance to visitors in Abu Dhabi from July through December, while Gulf Air’s and Etihad’s flight volumes are at 93 % of their February levels. Kuwait Airways and Qatar Airways have reached 86 % and 87 % respectively, and Emirates is at 86 % of its pre‑conflict flight volume.
The Gulf’s investment in airports, hotels and events over recent years has positioned the region as a global transport hub and tourism destination. A full reopening of the skies is expected to boost Gulf economies and restore the airlines’ role in connecting the Middle East with Europe, Asia, Africa and the Americas.
The current situation remains fluid. While flight volumes are climbing, the region’s airspace is still under review by aviation authorities, and the EASA warning will remain until 24 June. Airlines are monitoring the situation closely and will adjust schedules as new guidance emerges.
In the coming weeks, Gulf carriers will likely continue to add routes and increase frequencies as airspace restrictions ease. The industry will watch the IATA’s revised forecasts and the outcome of the ceasefire implementation meeting on Friday. The pace of recovery will depend on the stability of the region’s security situation and the speed at which regulatory bodies lift travel warnings.
For now, Gulf airlines are steadily regaining their pre‑war operational levels, signalling a gradual return to normalcy for the region’s aviation sector.
