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Brent Crude Rebounds as Strait of Hormuz Traffic Rises, but U.S. Gas Prices Lag Behind
Brent crude has finally shed the war‑time weight, sliding back to pre‑February 28 levels as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz picks up, yet U.S. motorists still see only a modest dip in pump prices.
On Thursday, Brent futures briefly dipped below the $72.48 a barrel mark that had defined the market before the U.S.–Iran flare‑up. The price then steadied near $73 a barrel, reflecting a surge in shipping activity that has begun to flow through the world’s most vital oil chokepoint.
The uptick follows the June 17 Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that Washington and Tehran signed after a ceasefire was declared on June 14. The agreement, brokered by Pakistan and Qatar, extends the truce for 60 days and paves the way for a final settlement. By easing a handful of sanctions, it has allowed Iranian crude to re‑enter the market, giving Brent a much‑needed lift.
According to the BBC, hundreds of vessels have returned to the Hormuz, although the volume still falls short of pre‑war levels. Data from the International Energy Agency and maritime trackers show that in February–March 2026, 71 tankers headed to Asia and 14 to Europe, underscoring the strait’s role as the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint.
Despite the rebound in crude, U.S. gasoline prices have only eased modestly from the highs of April. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reports a retail price of $3.64 per gallon for regular gasoline in March, while trading data show the average price per liter rose to $1.18 in May from $1.08 in April.
President Donald Trump has ordered an investigation into whether major oil companies are overcharging consumers, a claim the industry has rejected. “Gasoline prices better start going down a lot faster than what I’m seeing,” Trump said early Wednesday, according to the Money article. The remarks come amid a broader debate about the lag between crude prices and pump prices.
Michael Noel, a professor of economics at Texas Tech University, told Time that the supply chain—from extraction to refinery to distribution—creates a delay of several months before changes in crude prices affect retail prices.
The current situation illustrates the complex relationship between global oil markets and domestic fuel costs. While Brent has stabilized at pre‑war levels, the continued sanctions on Iranian oil and the partial nature of the MOU mean that shipping volumes and refinery throughput remain below pre‑conflict levels. This, in turn, limits the extent to which lower crude prices can be passed on to consumers.
Economists note that the Strait of Hormuz remains a strategic vulnerability. Even a temporary disruption could send Brent prices higher and increase U.S. gasoline prices. The recent uptick in traffic is a positive sign for energy security, but analysts caution that the full economic impact of the MOU will take time to materialize.
In the coming weeks, market participants will watch for further U.S. policy decisions on sanctions, as well as any changes in the ceasefire agreement. The U.S. Department of Energy has indicated it will continue monitoring the situation, while the U.S. Treasury will assess the impact of the MOU on its sanctions regime. For consumers, the most immediate concern remains the pace at which gasoline prices will decline.
The current state of the market reflects a gradual return to pre‑war conditions, with Brent crude stabilizing and tanker traffic picking up. However, the lag between crude and pump prices, coupled with the partial easing of sanctions, means that relief at the pump will likely remain slow. The U.S. government’s ongoing review of the MOU and its implications for sanctions policy will shape the trajectory of both global oil prices and domestic fuel costs in the months ahead.
On Thursday, Brent futures briefly dipped below the $72.48 a barrel mark that had defined the market before the U.S.–Iran flare‑up. The price then steadied near $73 a barrel, reflecting a surge in shipping activity that has begun to flow through the world’s most vital oil chokepoint.
The uptick follows the June 17 Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that Washington and Tehran signed after a ceasefire was declared on June 14. The agreement, brokered by Pakistan and Qatar, extends the truce for 60 days and paves the way for a final settlement. By easing a handful of sanctions, it has allowed Iranian crude to re‑enter the market, giving Brent a much‑needed lift.
According to the BBC, hundreds of vessels have returned to the Hormuz, although the volume still falls short of pre‑war levels. Data from the International Energy Agency and maritime trackers show that in February–March 2026, 71 tankers headed to Asia and 14 to Europe, underscoring the strait’s role as the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint.
Despite the rebound in crude, U.S. gasoline prices have only eased modestly from the highs of April. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reports a retail price of $3.64 per gallon for regular gasoline in March, while trading data show the average price per liter rose to $1.18 in May from $1.08 in April.
President Donald Trump has ordered an investigation into whether major oil companies are overcharging consumers, a claim the industry has rejected. “Gasoline prices better start going down a lot faster than what I’m seeing,” Trump said early Wednesday, according to the Money article. The remarks come amid a broader debate about the lag between crude prices and pump prices.
Michael Noel, a professor of economics at Texas Tech University, told Time that the supply chain—from extraction to refinery to distribution—creates a delay of several months before changes in crude prices affect retail prices.
The current situation illustrates the complex relationship between global oil markets and domestic fuel costs. While Brent has stabilized at pre‑war levels, the continued sanctions on Iranian oil and the partial nature of the MOU mean that shipping volumes and refinery throughput remain below pre‑conflict levels. This, in turn, limits the extent to which lower crude prices can be passed on to consumers.
Economists note that the Strait of Hormuz remains a strategic vulnerability. Even a temporary disruption could send Brent prices higher and increase U.S. gasoline prices. The recent uptick in traffic is a positive sign for energy security, but analysts caution that the full economic impact of the MOU will take time to materialize.
In the coming weeks, market participants will watch for further U.S. policy decisions on sanctions, as well as any changes in the ceasefire agreement. The U.S. Department of Energy has indicated it will continue monitoring the situation, while the U.S. Treasury will assess the impact of the MOU on its sanctions regime. For consumers, the most immediate concern remains the pace at which gasoline prices will decline.
The current state of the market reflects a gradual return to pre‑war conditions, with Brent crude stabilizing and tanker traffic picking up. However, the lag between crude and pump prices, coupled with the partial easing of sanctions, means that relief at the pump will likely remain slow. The U.S. government’s ongoing review of the MOU and its implications for sanctions policy will shape the trajectory of both global oil prices and domestic fuel costs in the months ahead.
